Quality Focus In Bear Markets

The first half of the year brought us the undesirable combination of falling stock and bond markets. After an initial risk reduction at the end of January, quality was the attention of all further portfolio activities. The focus was always on individual stocks and bonds where we had high conviction.

On the equity side, for example, we sold the entire range of external funds and the entire allocation to China. Thus, 90 percent of the equity component consists of individual stocks that we have identified, analyzed and invested ourselves. We are close to the business models and know the companies in detail.

The remaining 10 percent is made up of individual Japanese stocks. Here, an external team invests in a Gutmann fund shell. We have access to every single stock and exchange information closely down to the stock level.

Winning is only possible with conviction

Especially in difficult times, it is important for us to talk to you, our clients, in detail about your investments. In bear markets, all stocks are under pressure and the market hardly distinguishes between bad, good and excellent.

In the end, however, quality will always prevail. The shares of the best business models will recover quickly. And why not? Most of them remain profitable even in recessions and gain market share.

Exploiting opportunities offensively

In bonds, we started 2022 conservatively with short maturities and a significant proportion of inflation-linked bonds. No one  could escape the rapid and sharp rise in bond yields, but our positioning cushioned the losses. At the beginning of the year, duration, a measure of average remaining maturity, was 3.4 years. Some time ago, we increased it to 3.7 years, now to 4 years. In our bond dollar strategy, we increased the duration to 4.5 years.

In this way, we aim to benefit from the higher yields on the bond markets. This effect does not only occur when yields fall again and prices rise. As soon as the current rise in yields slows down, profits are already possible in the form of higher running yield.

Due to our positioning, we do not have to act defensively. On the contrary, we will use the remainder of the year to identify the best opportunities in the market.

The asset allocation described, applies to all customers who have selected the fundamental model as part of our asset management offer. The quantitative models are unaffected.